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The RCPs are consistent with a wide range of possible changes in future anthropogenic (i.e., human) greenhouse gas emissions, and aim to represent their atmospheric concentrations. Since IPCC's Fifth Assessment report the original pathways are being considered together with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: as are new RCPs such as RCP1.9, RCP3.4 and RCP7. In RCP 8.5 emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century. RCP7 is a baseline outcome rather than a mitigation target. In RCP 6, emissions peak around 2080, then decline. RCP 4.5 is described by the IPCC as an intermediate scenario. RCP 3.4 represents an intermediate pathway between the "very stringent" RCP2.6 and less stringent mitigation efforts associated with RCP4.5. The lower RCP values, on the other hand, are more desirable for humans but require more stringent climate change mitigation efforts to achieve them.Ī short description of the four RCPs is as follows: RCP 1.9 is a pathway that limits global warming to below 1.5 ☌, the aspirational goal of the Paris Agreement. The higher values mean higher greenhouse gas emissions and therefore higher global temperatures and more pronounced effects of climate change. The RCPs – originally RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5 – are labelled after a possible range of radiative forcing values in the year 2100 (2.6, 4.5, 6, and 8.5 W/m 2, respectively). The pathways describe different climate change scenarios, all of which are considered possible depending on the amount of greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted in the years to come. Four pathways were used for climate modeling and research for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. RCP8.5 would result in the highest greenhouse gas concentration (measured as CO 2-equivalents).Ī Representative Concentration Pathway ( RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions) trajectory adopted by the IPCC. You can also check out the climate tutorials right in Universe Sandbox ²: Home -> Main -> Activities.Projections used in climate change modeling Different RCP scenarios result in different predicted greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere (from 2000 to 2100). But simulating them in Universe Sandbox ² can help you gain a more intuitive understanding of what is possible for the future of Earth’s climate.Ĭheck out this blog post by Naomi, Universe Sandbox ²’s climate scientist, to learn more about how we simulate climate: Climate in Universe Sandbox ². Below is a simulation of RCP6 through 2100. To see how the different scenarios play out, you can graph Earth’s temperature over the course of several decades. This has the effect of increasing the greenhouse effect and ultimately increases the average temperature of the planet. The change in net radiative energy balance is also specified by the scenarios, and we put that right into our energy balance as a decrease in outgoing infrared energy. Once enabled, the pathway’s concentration level will be tied to the simulation year. Click the (+) icon to select one of the other 4 scenarios. In Universe Sandbox ², you can enable RCPs by selecting the Climate tab in Earth’s properties and toggling “Select an RCP Scenario.” The default is RCP 8 5. (This is simplified for the sake of this introduction you can learn more here.) One assumes a peak in greenhouse gases in the next decade, while another assumes that there will never be stabilization. Not only do the scenarios project different outcomes for concentrations, but, importantly, they each follow a unique trajectory based on a range of possible socio-economic changes. To stabilize concentrations, decreases in emissions are required, because even when emissions are lowered, CO₂ hangs around in the atmosphere for a long time. Each RCP makes different assumptions about how and when these factors might change. Policies, land use, global population, our attitudes toward production and consumption - these can all have a huge impact on greenhouse gas emissions. There are many factors we can consider when looking at what changes will affect emissions. CO₂ emissions and associated concentrations generated from the RCP Database.
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